As the number of satellites in orbit continues to climb, so does the risk of their remnants falling back to Earth, and into the path of commercial airliners. A 2025 study conducted by the University of British Columbia estimates a 26% probability that, within a year, uncontrolled space debris will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere over heavily trafficked airspace. And by 2030, the probability of an individual commercial aircraft encountering a piece of debris could reach 1 in 1,000, based on earlier modeling.
The primary threat doesn’t come from large rocket bodies or defunct satellites, but from small fragments that survive atmospheric re-entry. These can range from dust-sized particles to fuel tanks, many of which descend rapidly through the same altitude at which commercial aircraft operate, around 30,000 to 40,000 feet.
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