As Near-Earth orbital space gets more crowded, it is imperative that states should come to a more comprehensive agreement to regulate it
Near-Earth orbital space is a complex system and a finite resource that is geopolitically and commercially contested, and is in dire need of environmental protection. As a complex system, the elements that comprise it are not completely known and are intrinsically difficult to model due to, inter alia, unknown interdependencies, competitions amongst participants, and non-linear relationships between individual participants and the environment itself.
Various international space law instruments, such as the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, promote free and unhindered use of space for peaceful purposes, while avoiding harmful interference. The last two are not rigorously defined; and thus, are left to wide interpretation and implementation. Although there are no titles or deeds for orbital space, there is a finite carrying capacity to any given orbital highway and, thus, whoever takes this capacity first, wins. This has led to a commercial space race for orbital settlement and occupation. The space resource utilisation from States has led to some geopolitical saber-rattling by key space actors such as the United States (US), Russia, and China, and is manifesting as an arms race in outer space, with escalatory language and apparent behaviours. The principal issue regarding space security is the ability to predict or identify a threat. A threat could be identified on the basis of the following three ingredients: Opportunity, capability, and intent to cause harm.
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