At least a billion tons of emissions, equivalent to Japan’s total in 2020, could be saved if battery electric vehicles make up 80% of China’s new car sales and 34% of its total fleet by 2040, up from 19% and 3% in 2022. We take into account BEVs’ extra emissions from manufacturing and emissions savings while operating the vehicles.
The aggregate reduction in CO2 emissions from China’s EV shift could be at least 1 billion tons during 2023-40, equivalent to Japan’s 2020 emissions. That is based on our model factoring in emissions during production and operations, with an average of 15 years lifespan for internal combustion engines and eight for BEVs. Running an EV in China could produce 40% less emissions than an IC-engine car, assuming that coal continues to make up 56% of power generation, though making an EV could emit 60% more. Based on BI’s forecasts for China’s battery EV and ICE car sales, the number of BEVs on the country’s roads could jump from 2022’s 9.5 million to 150 million by 2040, while ICE vehicles might drop from 260 million to 222 million.
The emissions savings from BEVs could be higher if China’s renewable-energy mix rises over time.
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